The problem of efficiency versus resilience is the big question mark underlying every human system. We need efficiency to be able to afford a system that will do the job. On the other hand, every affordable system must be able to “roll with the punches” of the outside world and continue to perform its function at some acceptable level. Energy systems are no exception. How do we create an urban energy supply system that balances the alpha of efficiency with the omega of resilience.
Traditionally, the efficiency/resilience dilemma has been approached by creating a centralized energy system (affordable) and then trying to bolster that system by add-ons that buffer it against the vagaries of fate. But the technology we already have available suggests the opposite: a decentralized (resilient) energy system that can be monitored and controlled in real-time so as to squeeze out every bit of energy at a minimal cost in resources, principally solar and other “free” gifts from nature. How, exactly, to create this type of decentralized energy-supply system will of course varying from situation to situation. But the basic elements are clear.
First, the heat and transport sectors will move from fossil fuel processes to total electrification.
Second, since buildings are responsible for more than 30% of energy use in most areas, focus will be placed on creation of low-carbon, essentially zero-energy buildings. This will be accomplished by insulating and retro-fitting existing buildings and inclusion of such energy-efficiency into new ones.
Finally, transport systems will become more sustainable (resilient). The share of transport in energy usage and carbon emissions is expanding. To counter this trend, we will need to explore new efficient engine technologies, appropriate choices for fuel and, perhaps most importantly, new transport modes (think driverless public, not private, vehicles). On top of all this, we will have to also reevaluate spatial planning in order to minimize transport paths from one location to another.
All of these desiderata will be underpinned by the digitalization of the future, which will lead to better monitoring, automation and control of urban energy usage. This will all lead to urban energy systems that will meet the needs of the urban populations without compromising the city’s livability or the ability of future generations to meet their needs.